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Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

Target Audience

Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.

Qualifications

Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed the Monetary Policy (MP) course or the online Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF

Course Description

This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting. It emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools necessary to develop or extend the model to fit their own monetary policy framework. Country case studies are used to reinforce participant understanding and to help them compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

Course Objectives

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

  • Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
  • Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using the small semi-structural model.
  • Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
  • Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables e.g. output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
  • Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
  • Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis using their own national data when they return home.
Language: English
Application process: Please apply online

Details

Start:
Oct 19, 2020
End:
Oct 30, 2020
Course Number
ST20.25

Application Deadline

May 22, 2019