Mr. Natan Epstein (Deputy Division Chief, Institute for Capacity Development, International Monetary Fund)
Mr. Valeriu Nalban (Economist, Institute for Capacity Development, International Monetary Fund)
Economists and officials at all levels and institutions
We develop an integrated epidemiological-macroeconomic model to analyze the interplay between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activity, as a tool for capacity building purposes. We illustrate a workhorse framework that combines a rich epidemiological model with an economic block to shed light on the tradeoffs between saving lives and preserving economic outcomes under various mitigation policies and scenarios calibrated for emerging market and developing economies. In our benchmark setup, we link the effective contact frequency and labor supply decisions to the current state of the disease progression, allowing for relevant behavioral responses that introduce multiple feedback channels. We showcase the effects of various “smart” mitigation measures, e.g. improved quarantine capacity or targeted labor market restrictions, to alleviate the tradeoffs between health-related outcomes and economic activity, including in response to a second infection wave. The discovery of treatment or vaccine, and the possibility of temporary immunity for the recovered individuals are also considered. The model is further extended to a multisector framework to analyze the sectoral allocation effects of the COVID-19 shock.
The webinar is based on the recently published IMF Working Paper “COVID-19 Impact and Mitigation Policies: A Didactic Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Model Approach” by John P. Ansah (Duke-NUS Medical School), Natan Epstein (IMF), and Valeriu Nalban (IMF). The paper is available at the following link:https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/11/08/COVID-19-Impact-and-Mitigation-Policies-A-Didactic-Epidemiological-Macroeconomic-Model-49805
To register for this webinar, please complete the online form here by November 17, 2020 (by 12 noon, Singapore time). Only official email addresses are accepted.