Mr. Edward Robinson, Monetary Authority of Singapore
Speakers and Panelists
Mr. Aurobindo Ghosh, Singapore Management University, DBS-SKBI-SMU Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations
Mr. Thomas Lam, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
Mr. Taimur Baig, DBS Bank Ltd
Ms. Natalia Novikova, Resident Representative for Singapore and Malaysia, International Monetary Fund
Mr. Dave Fernandez, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
What the Webinar will cover:
Record fiscal and monetary stimuli in large economies, a vaccination-led economic rebound, and still-low interest rates have given rise to expectations of higher inflation in the 12-18-month horizon. Market-based indicators and surveys of professional forecasters and households point to pressures building in food, commodities, consumer durables, and housing markets. What are the key takeaways from these inflation markers for economies ranging from the US to Singapore? Is disinflation bottoming in EU and Japan? What are the implications for Asian emerging markets, and where does China fit in?
This two-part discussion sheds light on these issues from two angles. In part one, panelists will explore the potential for inflation overshooting in developed economies, after below-target-target outcomes for years. In the second part, panelists will look at emerging Asia, where a nascent recovery is underpinned by buoyant exports. Demand-pull inflation looks unlikely given the lack of large stimulus packages, possible delays in vaccination-driven normalization, and a distressed service sector. Still, Asia has traditionally imported inflation through food and energy channels; moreover, tight semiconductor, shipping, and consumer durables markets could boost costs this year. Understanding these opposing drivers affecting cost-of-living and inflation are critical for the design and effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies.
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