Details
Date:
Apr 27, 2022
Time:
10:00 am - 11:30 am
Course Number:
STR22.04
Application Deadline
Apr 25, 2022
STI Webinar on Shipping Costs and Inflation
Speakers
Mr. Daniel Jiménez, Research Analyst, Asia-Pacific Department, IMF
Yan Carrière-Swallow, Senior Economist, Asia-Pacific Department, IMF
Moderator
Mr. Rajan Govil, Senior Economist, IMF - Singapore Regional Training Institute
Target Audience
Academics, Government Officials and Central Bankers.
Webinar Description
The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains, leading to shipment delays and soaring shipping costs. We study the impact of shocks to global shipping costs—measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)—on domestic prices for a large panel of countries during the period 1992-2021. We find that spikes in the BDI are followed by sizable and statistically significant increases in import prices, PPI, headline, and core inflation, as well as inflation expectations. The impact is similar in magnitude but more persistent than for shocks to global oil and food prices. The effects are more muted in countries where imports make up a smaller share of domestic consumption, and those with inflation targeting regimes and better anchored inflation expectations. The results are robust to several checks, including an instrumental variable approach in which we instrument changes in shipping costs with an indicator of closures of the Suez Canal.
The speaker shares a recently published and featured Chart of The Week on IMF’s website (How Soaring Shipping Costs Raise Prices Around the World – IMF Blog) and the working paper of the webinar (Shipping Costs and Inflation (imf.org)).
This webinar will be delivered in 30 minutes followed by a short Q&A.
Registration
To register for this webinar, please complete the online form here by April 25, 2022, 12noon (Singapore Time). Only official email addresses are accepted.
